The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
In President Obama’s third State of the Union address, he devoted more time than before to covering energy issues, calling for an “all-out, all-of-the-above” approach to boosting production of every kind of domestic energy, fossil as well as renewable.
Obama also asked the country to imagine “a future where we’re in control of our own energy,” which seemed to be a call for energy independence, a goal set out by all U.S. presidents going back to Nixon.
He also said he supports opening up more offshore areas for exploration and development of oil and gas. The president of Shell Oil said it seems the federal government has increased its pace of issuing permits for deepwater drilling.
He also expressed support for shale gas, saying the country had natural gas supplies that could last “nearly 100 years.” However, a new analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said the country may only have about half as much shale gas as the EIA’s 2011 estimate held—and the most extensively drilled shale area, the Marcellus, was downgraded by about two-thirds. For any drilling on public lands, Obama will require companies to disclose the chemicals they use.
The result was a variety of aims that could conflict, since boosting production of fossil fuels could stymie renewable energy and boost greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate change only showed up in the speech once, when Obama blamed partisan division in Congress for delaying climate legislation. He indicated there is no reason Congress shouldn’t at least set a “clean energy standard”—the kind of effort that could sharply cut emissions at low cost, according to an analysis last year by the EIA.
Changes to Taxes and Trade
Another theme in Obama’s speech was an “economy built to last,” calling for a resurgence of U.S. manufacturing. A key part of this would be clean tech, as Obama said, “I will not walk away from … clean energy.” He also touted a wind turbine manufacturer as an example of a U.S. company creating domestic jobs.
To help protect domestic jobs, he announced the creation of a Trade Enforcement Unit that will investigate “unfair trade practices in countries like China,” apparently a reference to recent scuffles over China’s support for solar panel manufacturers.
Obama also argued companies should not get tax breaks for moving jobs overseas. There has been some criticism of green stimulus money supporting jobs overseas and now Evergreen Solar, the United States’ third-biggest solar panel manufacturer, announced plans to shut down its main U.S. factory and open another in China.
Obama also called for an end to tax breaks for the petroleum industry. “We have subsidized oil companies for a century,” he said. “That’s long enough.” Obama has urged such a move several times before, as has Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, who said cutting fossil fuel subsidies would get the world halfway to reaching ambitious goals for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
However, fuel price hikes have sparked protests—as when Italy raised taxes and Nigeria lowered subsidies.
Oil Market Ratchets Up
Meanwhile, the European Union adopted a ban on importing Iranian oil, to be phased in by July 1, to try to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
In retaliation, Iran is considering immediately ceasing oil sales to Europe, and again threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil chokepoint, leading the International Monetary Fund to warn rising tensions could cause oil prices to spike, joining a chorus of earlier warnings.
In case of a shut-down, Saudi Arabia’s leaders said oil could continue flowing through alternate routes, and make up for much of the loss of Iranian oil—also admitting a preference for oil prices to remain around $100 a barrel.
In case of such oil or gas price spikes, six Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives introduced the Gas Price Spike Act to apply a windfall tax that would capture most of the revenue that goes beyond “a reasonable profit.” The money raised would help fund fuel-efficient cars and mass transit systems.
Regardless of acute geopolitical turmoil, high oil prices are here to stay, since oil’s “tipping point has passed” and the “supply of cheap oil has plateaued,” argued an article in Nature.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
In Durban, South Africa, the latest round of United Nations climate negotiations opened with a plea from South Africa’s president, Jacob Zuma, for countries to look beyond national interests. So far, however, the talks have been marked by many of the same divisions that plagued earlier meets.
A coalition of environmental groups—including the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Union of Concerned Scientists—accused the U.S. of negotiating in bad faith. At the conference, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela stalled on decisions about a Green Climate Fund to pay for clean energy and climate change adaptation in poorer countries.
In response, the European Union (EU) urged a conclusion on the fund, and took the hardest stance it ever has in such negotiations, insisting on stiff conditions for China and developing countries and demanding a road map for moving forward.
Meanwhile, Canada’s environment minister called the country’s decision to sign on to the Kyoto Protocol “one of the biggest blunders” an earlier administration made since they had no intention of meeting the pledge. This led a group of African leaders to plead Canada to reconsider.
Climategate 2.0
A week before the climate talks began, a new collection of 5,000 e-mails from climate researchers surfaced, apparently part of the same set obtained and then leaked in 2009 in the so-called “Climategate” affair. Despite widespread accusations of bias and manipulation of data, the researchers involved were cleared of wrongdoing.
But the new release of the second batch of e-mails led U.S. Rep. Ed Markey to state: “This is clearly an attempt to sabotage the international climate talks for a second time.” Markey called for more intense investigation into how the e-mails were hacked. While U.K. police investigated the apparent crime before, a Freedom of Information Act request revealed the police spent little on this effort.
To try and get clues of who may have been responsible, the Guardian reached out to readers to help troll through the files and uncovered an encrypted file apparently created by the hacker.
Emissions Warning
The latest Greenhouse Gas Bulletin from the World Meteorological Organization recorded an unusually large increase in the CO2 level in the air in 2010—a jump of 2.3 parts per million over the year, compared with the average over the preceding decade of 2.0 parts per million each year.
If this trend continued for the rest of the century, the world would warm some 6 degrees Celsius, warned Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
However, this forecast is at odds with other warnings the IEA has made, argued Chris Nelder of SmartPlanet—in particular, Birol’s warning that the world has reached the peak of conventional crude oil production, and that high oil prices are hampering economic growth.
Threat of “Oil Armageddon”
Oil-importing countries continued to feel the bite of high oil prices; nonetheless, this year renewable energy spending passed a milestone, topping investment for fossil power plants.
Oil prices may spike again, many analysts warned, after France urged many countries to halt Iranian oil imports, and the U.S., Britain and Canada teamed up to apply new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.
However, the EU, poised to overtake the U.S. as the world’s biggest oil importer, can’t afford to refuse Iranian oil, the Wall Street Journal argued. Likewise, the U.S. had been considering sanctions, CNN reported, but hesitated because of the toll an oil price spike would likely have on the global economy. With relations between Iran and the West quickly worsening, Reuters reports oil consuming nations, hedge funds and refineries are preparing for an “oil armageddon.”
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
The infrastructure built over the next five years could “lock in” enough emissions to push the world past its target for limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest annual update of energy trends, World Energy Outlook.
The Agency is “increasingly pessimistic” about the prospect for dealing with climate change, said deputy executive director Richard Jones.
To stay below 2 degrees Celsius of warming, the world has a budget of greenhouse gases it can emit, equal to about 1 trillion tons of CO2. Infrastructure already in place, or in the process of being built, will emit about 80 percent of that, the IEA estimated.
Unless there is a binding international agreement soon to ensure a swift transition to low-carbon infrastructure, “the door to 2 degrees will be closed forever,” said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol. So, investment in cleantech can’t wait until economic good times, argued the Guardian’s Damian Carrington.
This transition away from fossil fuels will require that annual subsidies for renewable energy continue rising, reaching $250 billion by 2035—four times today’s level—the IEA estimated, but this would still be considerably less than today’s fossil fuel subsidies.
The IEA foresees oil prices remaining high for decades to come, with a tight market with risks of price spikes if there is a cut-off due to war or soaring prices if there is insufficient investment in oil fields.
Because of these climate and security risks, Birol argued, “We have to leave oil before it leaves us.”
Solar Trade War?
The boom in Chinese production of low-cost solar panels has hit U.S. manufacturers hard, making it difficult for them to compete.
Subsidies for renewable energy in China have sparked accusations of a trade war with the United States, prompting a U.S. Department of Commerce investigation.
Some U.S. manufacturers launched an official complaint against China, and have called for a duty on Chinese panels imported into the U.S.
Another group of U.S. solar manufacturers and installers banded together to form the Coalition for Affordable Solar Energy to oppose the complaint. This led China’s largest solar power plant developer to shelve plans for a $500 million U.S. project.
Despite China’s large exports of solar panels, they’re also using many at home—and may install as much solar capacity as the U.S. this year.
Carbon Tax Approved
Australia will impose a large tax on carbon emissions, after the country’s Senate passed the legislation. The tax will kick in next July, and the country is pursuing linking its carbon market with others in New Zealand and Europe.
The system will be tax-and-dividend in which households will be compensated for higher energy prices, with payments of about 10 Australian dollars per week scheduled to start in May, before the tax hits.
Pipeline Controversy
The proposed Keystone XL pipeline to carry tar sands from Canada to Texas faced its biggest opposition yet with a revival of protests in Washington, D.C., in which thousands of protesters encircled the White House.
Canada is also considering another tar sands pipeline called Northern Gateway to reach a port on the Pacific coast, sited for export to Asia.
Oil historian Daniel Yergin argued opposition to the Keystone XL pipeline is misguided because if the U.S. doesn’t buy the fuel, China will.
Either way, the large store of tar sands in Canada could reshape world oil markets, said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which represents large exporters such as Saudi Arabia, but does not include Canada.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
After rebel forces swept into Libya’s capital, Tripoli, the country may be able to start to ramp oil production and exports again, which many analysts hope will bring down oil prices.
Libya claims Africa’s largest proven oil reserves, and was producing about 1.6 million barrels a day when the production suddenly dropped to near zero in February. Many analysts said it will take two to three years for Libya’s oil production to recover to previous levels, and by year’s end they may only be producing a quarter to a third as much as before.
Even before rebels had taken over Moammar Gadhafi’s compound, oil companies were preparing to return to the country, which they left months before.
So far, though, the price has been up and down, in part because of anticipation of the outcome of a summit this week, which may result in a new round of quantitative easing, which would likely drive down the value of the dollar.
Trading Leaks
To try to understand how much speculators are driving oil prices, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has been looking into “excessive speculation.” Earlier this year, five traders were charged with making $50 million off speculation.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, a long-time critic of oil speculation, became frustrated with the pace of investigations and leaked the records of many trades.
Unconventional Contention
While dozens were in jail in Washington, D.C., after protests to oppose the construction of another pipeline carrying tar sands products from Canada to the U.S., a New York Times editorial argued against the pipeline because of high greenhouse gas emissions from tar sands operations. Canadian officials, meanwhile, stepped up lobbying on its behalf.
Producing natural gas from shale deposits using hydraulic fracturing has also been under scrutiny for its greenhouse gas emissions, and now a new study argues Marcellus Shale natural gas has slightly higher emissions than conventional natural gas, but fewer emissions than coal.
West Virginia issued emergency rules to regulate horizontal drilling, which the governor hoped was a first step to more permanent regulations for this drilling.
Dark Days in America, Brighter Elsewhere
With budget woes, spending cuts, and more spending cuts scheduled to be made over the coming years, it appears renewable energy in the U.S. is entering “dark days,” reported GreenBiz.
But renewables are gaining increasing traction elsewhere. In Brazil, in a large power auction, wind emerged as the cheapest source of electricity, beating out natural gas and hydroelectric power. The contracts could lead to the construction of 1.9 gigawatts of new wind farms.
Japan is expected to pass a renewable energy bill that would introduce a feed-in tariff to make renewables more attractive, and set down in law the government’s target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 25 percent (compared with 1990 levels) by 2020. To cope with the Fukushima disaster, though, Japan has boosted its use of fossil fuels in the short term.
Germany’s national rail company, which is the country’s biggest electricity consumer, is also moving toward renewables, planning to quit fossil fuels by 2050.
The Billionth Car
The future is bright for electric cars, according to a forecast from Pike Research, which said worldwide sales are likely to grow to 5.2 million by 2017, more than 50 times this year’s estimated sales.
However, even then electric cars would make up a tiny fraction of all cars, with more than one billion on the road as of 2010, a new study said. About half of the recent growth in cars has been in China, which has higher efficiency standards than the U.S., but the country is showing little interest in hybrids and electric cars.
Scientists Scrutinized
Scientists working on climate change have been under scrutiny, with a polar bear researcher being suspended from his job for the U.S. government.
Another researcher came under fire after the “Climategate” leak of e-mails. He was cleared earlier this year in an investigation by his university, and now has been cleared in a second investigation by the National Science Foundation.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
The stock market took a beating this week, after the rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded U.S. bonds—but clean tech stocks have been falling even faster than the market as a whole.
Shares in clean energy companies have been hit by a “triple whammy”—producing too much capacity for the demand, problems with government debt, and broader risk aversion among investors. As a part of this, clean energy venture capital funding has dropped 44 percent when compared with last year.
Analysts from the global bank HSBC said wind energy stocks are undervalued and their prices could fall more as debt crises in both the United States and European Union stand to cut wind subsidies further. There are more than seven gigawatts of wind projects under construction now—but few planned beyond 2013 because of uncertainty about policies.
Solar stocks were down after many companies reported dismal second-quarter results, as prices on panels fell—but not as fast as the costs of producing them—and as their margins shrank. First Solar, the biggest solar panel manufacturer outside of China, boosted production but suffered a large drop in profits—and their share price. Suntech, the biggest manufacturer, also saw its stock fall, hitting a one-year low.
But some analysts say renewables stocks are bottoming out, and are set to rise again.
Adjusting to No Nukes
Germany decided to phase out nuclear power within 10 years and rely more heavily on renewables, and the country’s utilities are scrambling to adjust. E.ON, the world’s biggest utility in terms of sales, suffered its first-ever quarterly loss and is laying off 11,000 workers as it aims to boost its spending on renewables.
Another utility, RWE, is also selling off assets to cope with poor performance—but is planning to stick with its renewables investments.
Making the Military Green
The U.S. military is the single biggest user of oil in the world, and has been warned by analysts its dependence is a security threat. Now the U.S. Army has formed a new renewables office that may spend $7 billion over the next decade on renewable and alternative energy power.
Although the military has a target of using 25 percent renewable energy by 2025, many installations lack the expertise to move forward quickly enough, said the U.S. Department of Defense, and the new office aims to fill that gap.
Meanwhile, units within the mega-corporations Boeing and Siemens have teamed up to pursue military contracts for smart-grid technologies, which the military could develop and bring down the costs, helping them reach the market later.
Risky Business
With oil prices high and political uncertainty in many oil-exporting countries, the U.S. faces near-record energy security risks, according to a new U.S. Chamber of Commerce report. In 2010, their energy risk index is as high, as in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and near the record high of 2008. The Chamber predicts the risk level will remain high for another 25 years.
With gloomy economic prospects, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries all agreed oil demand later this year is likely to be less than they had thought.
With Saudi Arabia boosting its production to the highest level in 30 years, oil prices have fallen a bit in recent weeks, but this is largely because of weak economies, the IEA said.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
Clean energy could be among the hardest-hit sectors if the U.S. government does not raise the debt ceiling and then defaults on the national debt.
If there is a default, it could hurt in direct ways, by stopping payments for cash grants and loan guarantees that support many renewables projects. It could also hit innovation, by putting the Department of Energy program for cutting-edge energy technologies, ARPA-E, at risk.
A default could also hit indirectly, by pushing down the value of the U.S. dollar, as well as pushing up interest rates, which would affect financing for renewables projects that require large up-front investment.
Leaving Energy Subsidies, Credits Behind
Any kind of budget deal will have to include large spending cuts. According to a survey of experts by the National Journal, most energy subsidies and tax breaks could be cut back. Subsidies for wind and solar may fly under the radar and survive cuts—at least for a little while.
Corn ethanol subsidies are likely to face big cutbacks, following a Senate vote in June. Any plan to raise the debt ceiling would most likely include slashing the 45-cent-per-gallon credit for gasoline blended with ethanol. “We don’t need the excise tax credit,” said Chuck Woodside, chairman of the national Renewable Fuels Association, because ethanol is now cheaper than gasoline.
The tariff on imported ethanol is likely to go soon as well, reported Ethanol Producer—either at the end of the year when current legislation expires, or sooner, if that legislation is repealed by a deal on the debt ceiling.
Making Oil Go Further
Problems with the debt ceiling could have mixed effects on the price of oil, which has been rising again in recent weeks. A default would likely push down demand, but also push down the value of the dollar—which would have opposite effects on the price of oil. Lately, though, traders have been betting prices will continue to go up.
The oil the U.S. buys would go further under new auto efficiency standards Obama is expected to announce on Friday, which would require cars by 2025 to average 54.5 miles per gallon, compared with current requirements of 30.2 mpg.
During the first half of 2011, Detroit’s Big Three automakers—General Motors, Ford and Chrysler—boosted their lobbying to more than $10 million to try and shape the efficiency standards. Now, Platts reported, the major automakers have agreed to the plan.
Renewables Boost in U.K., Germany
The U.K. is dominating the offshore wind market lately, installing, in the first half of 2011, the most offshore turbines of any country—101 around the U.K., compared with seven across the rest of Europe.
But Germany is looking to catch up. Both houses of Parliament have now passed a new energy bill, which has more aggressive targets for expanding renewable energy, and includes higher tariffs for biomass, geothermal energy and offshore wind. But according to an analysis by Rhenish-Westphalian Institute for Economic Research, the transition to renewable energy is likely to be more expensive than the government has said.
A Warm Cloud
Server farms—which store and process huge amounts of data that zing around via the internet—eat up a lot of electricity, but the heat they spit out could be put to use, argued scientists at Microsoft Research and the University of Virginia. They propose putting servers in buildings, where the waste heat could heat the buildings, to save on energy—and it could also create faster, more secure networks.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
Australia, with the highest per capita greenhouse emissions of any large developed country, will soon take on one of the most ambitious schemes to tackle climate change, with a new carbon-trading system.
The planned carbon tax will start in 2012 and apply first to the 500 worst polluting companies responsible for about 60 percent of the country’s emissions, making it the largest carbon market outside of Europe. Rates will start at 23 Australian dollars per tonne of carbon (US$24.20 per ton), higher than prices have been on the European emissions market for the past couple of years.
The carbon prices would gradually rise, and then the government would transition in 2015 into a cap-and-trade system, aiming for emission cuts by 2050 of 80 percent compared with 2000 levels.
Taxes Redefined
Australia’s plan was generally hailed by environmentalists and those working on renewable energy, and economists generally support it. But it was panned by many in big industry, and Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s administration, already suffering low approval ratings, saw ratings drop further after announcement of the new plan.
To avoid the carbon tax penalizing the poor, about half of the new revenues will be returned to citizens in the form of tax breaks for the lowest earners, part of an effort toward “reducing taxes on desirable things (work and income) … and replacing them with a charge on something undesirable (carbon pollution).”
The carbon tax is part of a package of new policies on climate and energy, which also include the creation of a new Australian Renewable Energy Agency, which will oversee more than $3 billion in funding, primarily for solar, wind, and geothermal energy. The funding boost will put “solar on steroids,” said John Grimes, chief executive of the Australian Solar Energy Society, aiding large-scale solar installations.
Nuclear Power Continues to Polarize
Meanwhile, the U.K. is embarking on a huge restructuring of its electricity market, which is outlined in a new white paper. The Guardian’s Damian Carrington argues the “sprawling and complex maze of measures … has the central aim of getting new nuclear power stations built.”
Since Japan’s Fukushima disaster, the U.K.’s Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Chris Huhne, and others in the U.K. government have supported expanding the country’s nuclear power. Within days of Japan’s disaster, the U.K. government began drawing up a public relations strategy to downplay the disaster, according to a recent report on a leak of government e-mails.
The restructuring proposed in the new white paper would require spending £200 billion ($320 billion) on new infrastructure, but this won’t necessarily lead to higher electricity prices than customers would face otherwise, argues Huhne, since customers now are vulnerable to rising oil and gas prices.
Elsewhere, there are a growing number of countries planning or weighing a nuclear retrenchment. Most recently, Kuwait’s Deputy Prime Minister said the country is no longer interested in developing nuclear energy, and Japan’s Prime Minister urged his country to phase out nuclear.
France, the most nuclear-reliant country, is embarking on a new study of the country’s future energy mix that will consider the possibility of phasing out nuclear by 2040 or 2050.
Saudi Oil Peak?
After the announcement by the International Energy Agency that the world’s richer countries would tap into their emergency oil reserves, oil prices initially fell. For the U.S. portion of the release, many bidders vied for the oil, offering about $105 to $110 a barrel—which would raise more than $3 billion for the government.
The high number of bidders “shows there are concerns in the marketplace over just how much oil is going to be out there,” said David Pumphrey, deputy director of energy and national security for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
After an acrimonious meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in which members disagreed about whether to boost production, some countries decided to go it alone. The most significant is Saudi Arabia, which raised its output to about 9.5 million barrels a day—the same rate as before the global recession.
Meanwhile, major Wall Street firms warned of rising oil prices over the rest of this year and into 2012. Goldman Sachs, for one, raised its forecast prices, and said “it is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted” and prices soar. A major reason for the gloomier outlook, Goldman Sachs said, is Saudi Arabia won’t be able to pump as much oil as many had expected.
Solar Purchasing
The company Groupon offers big discounts as long as a bunch of people will sign up to a particular deal, and now San Francisco is emulating this model to boost solar power installations. By forming buyers’ groups, they hope to get around some of the barriers to small-scale solar, such as high transaction costs and availability of credit.
In another effort to finance small-scale solar, some firms are emulating Wall Street’s bundling of mortgages, by creating “asset-backed securities”—bundles of leases on residential solar panels.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
In a move that caught many by surprise, the world’s richer oil-importing countries will soon tap into emergency oil reserves, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced, arguing: “Greater tightness in the oil market threatens to undermine the fragile global economic recovery.”
In total, over the next 30 days, IEA member countries plan to release 60 million barrels of crude—less than one day’s worth of global consumption. Half that oil would come from the U.S., and the rest from a dozen other countries, including many European Union members, Turkey, Korea, and Japan. The IEA has coordinated a release of oil from its members’ reserves only twice before, in response to the 1991 U.S.-Iraq war and to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.
U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu said, “We are taking this action in response to the ongoing loss of crude oil due to supply disruptions in Libya and other countries.” However, the Obama administration began considering tapping the strategic oil reserve in January.
Speculation of Motives
Reactions to the oil release ran the gamut, with the chairman and the managing director of oil analysis firm IHS CERA saying the new release is “an unprecedented use of strategic reserves as an economic stimulus.” Some said the move is symbolic, to boost market optimism and to give the sense that the government is doing something about high gasoline prices while others said the real motivation was to hurt oil speculators by catching them by surprise.
Some speculators, it seems, may have gotten a jump on it: oil started trading suspiciously in the hours before the IEA announcement, driving prices down and prompting an investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In fact, oil prices fell more than 5 percent in the day of the IEA announcement, but the following day rebounded, in part because of fears about supplies getting tighter later this year.
Spare a Barrel
Many members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) criticized the decision, saying the IEA had not given them time to boost their production. In late May, OPEC countries decided against formally raising their production quotas, but some members—in particular Saudi Arabia—signaled they would boost production anyway.
OPEC members in the Persian Gulf—such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait—are widely considered to hold most of the world’s spare capacity for oil production. But oil expert Euan Mearns noted that despite a sharp rise in drilling activity in Gulf nations in February 2011, their production hasn’t risen much. He interprets this as a sign of goodwill, and as an indication that “usable spare capacity does not exist”—or that it must be of relatively undesirable heavy, sour crude.
A Natural Gas Bubble?
In the U.S., “fracking” to get natural gas out of underground shale has been booming—but the vast majority of fracking wells are “inherently unprofitable” and the fast-growing industry is a “Ponzi scheme,” according to industry e-mails obtained by the New York Times. Much of the shale gas activity has been financed by a rush of investment money into the sector, rather than by profits from production, the e-mails say.
In a companion article, the New York Times reported e-mails from the Energy Information Administration reveal internal doubts over their forecasts of shale gas production, such as projections it would triple from 2009 to 2035.
California Carbon Cap Stalled
California’s legislation for a cap-and-trade system for many of the state’s largest greenhouse gas emitters had faced a legal battle—but the court hearing the case ruled the state can go ahead. The project was scheduled to start in January 2012, but Air Resources Board Chairwoman Mary Nichols, who oversees the program, announced enforcement for major polluters would will be delayed until 2013.
Efficiency from Detroit to Afghanistan
The Obama administration is trying to cut demand for oil by boosting vehicle efficiency. In closed-door talks with Detroit’s big three—General Motors, Ford and Chrysler—officials called for average mileage for cars and light trucks to reach 56.2 miles per gallon by 2025.
Meanwhile, Obama announced plans for troop withdrawals from Afghanistan, prompting renewed discussion of the costs of the war—including NPR’s report that U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq spend an estimated $20 billion a year on air conditioning.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
While a bill to slash $6 billion in annual tax breaks for ethanol fuel failed to pass the U.S. Senate, it was still hailed by some lawmakers and analysts as a major break from the past.
It raises a philosophical quandary, says the Christian Science Monitor: “If Congress takes away a tax subsidy, should that count as a tax hike?” Nearly all Republican representatives have signed on to “The Pledge,” an agreement to never vote to raise taxes.
The bill to end ethanol tax breaks attracted votes from both sides of the aisle, with 34 Republicans and 6 Democrats voting for it—but it fell 20 votes short of passing. Nonetheless, some Democrats said the vote broke the dam, opening the way for the repeal of other tax breaks, such as larger ones for the oil industry.
Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of Midwestern senators introduced an alternative to ending ethanol subsidies. Instead of a flat-rate tax credit of 45 cents per gallon of ethanol-gasoline blend, the new bill would introduce a variable subsidy that would increase when oil prices drop, and fall when oil prices climb.
On Thursday, a wide majority in the Senate did vote in favor of another piece of legislation that would end tax breaks for U.S. ethanol as well as tariffs on foreign ethanol. However, the change is unlikely to go into effect immediately, Bloomberg reports, because the repeal of the subsidies and tariffs is attached to another piece of legislation that is unlikely to become law.”
Fuel Woes Cause Ripple Effects
A report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization, and seven other international agencies called for an end to subsidies for biofuels because they are driving up food prices. Prices for both food and fuel have been rising fast in India and China, leading the Chinese government to adjust banking rules to try to quell inflation.
Meanwhile, if oil prices remain high—above the current level of $120 for Brent crude—there is a risk of derailing the economy, into a double-dip recession, said Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency. “We all know what happened in 2008. Are we going to see the same movie?”
U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu also warned high fuel prices are taking their toll. “We’re very cognizant of … the fact that higher gasoline prices so impede the economic recovery,” Chu said. One of the measures the Obama administration considered for bringing down gasoline prices, he said, was to tap the government’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, intended for emergencies.
More details came in a report from Reuters, with anonymous sources saying that in the weeks before a recent, fractious OPEC meeting, U.S. and Saudi officials met to discuss “an unprecedented arrangement” of oil trades. In the proposed deal, the U.S. would send Europe low-sulfur, “sweet” crude from the strategic reserve, and in return receive more high-sulfur, “sour” crude from Saudi Arabia. The deal fell through, the sources said, because Saudi Arabia was unwilling to sell the oil at a discount.
Another Kind of Military Power
The U.S. military—the world’s single largest user of oil, and responsible for 80 percent of the U.S. government’s energy consumption—has now created an Operational Energy Strategy. “Before, it was assumed energy would be where you needed when you needed it,” a Pentagon official told National Journal. “The new strategy is to say that energy is a strategic good that enables your military force.”
Earlier this month, Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, called on the Army to use fuel more efficiently. In addition to efficiency, renewable energy will be a major priority for investments by the military over the next 20 years, according to a study by clean tech group Pike Research.
Nuclear Risks Still Weigh Heavily
Nuclear plants and nuclear waste disposal have been under increased scrutiny since Japan’s Fukushima disaster, which the government recently confirmed had led to a meltdown of three of the six reactors at the site.
Republicans called for Gregory Jaczko, head of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, to step down after it was revealed he had “unilaterally” moved to stop work on the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump—a project for a long-term disposal site that has been in the works for decades, but that President Obama vowed in 2009 to end.
An independent review of temporary waste storage sites in the U.S. indicated that the threat of a release of radioactivity dwarfs the risk Japan faced. The report’s lead author, Robert Alvarez, said, “The largest concentrations of radioactivity on the planet will remain in storage at U.S. reactor sites for the indefinite future.”
Meanwhile, China’s nuclear power plants all passed a recent safety review by government inspectors, paving the way for the country to move ahead with its ambitious plans for expanding atomic energy.
Germany’s decision to phase out nuclear power by 2022 has turned the country into “a multibillion-dollar laboratory experiment” on how to roll out alternatives quickly to replace the quarter of Germany’s electricity that came from nuclear prior to Japan’s disaster. To enable renewables to take on a larger share of the load will likely require huge investments in expanding the grid and add a few thousand miles (several thousand kilometers) of additional power lines.
Are We Headed for a New Ice Age?
The Sun may go into hibernation for decades, a few new studies suggest, with a dramatic drop in the number of sunspots. Previous drops in the number of sunspots have been linked to cooler times on our planet, such as the “Little Ice Age” that struck medieval Europe.
Although some newspapers trumpeted that we’re approaching a “second little ice age,” New Scientist says the effect would actually be more like “a slightly less severe heatwave.” In fact, even if sunspots do go quiet, it would lower the Sun’s heating of Earth by at most 0.3 watts per square meter, whereas theman-made greenhouse effect is now about six times larger, at 1.7 watts per square meter.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
With oil prices high, the International Energy Agency (IEA) last month made a rare plea for the world to produce more oil. So the latest meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), where they set their production quotas, was closely watched. After a rancorous meeting, most member countries refused to raise quotas.
Before the OPEC meeting, the chief economist of the IEA, Fatih Birol, told the New York Times: “Oil prices are hurting the economy.” He added, “I hope to see more oil in the markets soon.”
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi declared it “one of the worst meetings we ever had,” with opposing views from the “haves” and “have-nots”—in terms of spare production capacity.
Saudi Arabia had been pushing to boost production by more than 1.5 million barrels per day, above current levels. Already OPEC members have gone beyond their quotas, producing an estimated 28.8 million barrels per day, compared to the current overall quota of 24.8 million barrels per day. “Everybody in OPEC is cheating and everyone knows that,” an oil analyst told the New York Times.
The Saudi oil minister suggested his country would decide on its own production levels, telling Platts, “let the buyers come and we will supply them with what they want, whatever they need.” The Wall Street Journal quoted one Gulf-state delegate as saying it’s “the end of the quota system,” and the Guardian reports some analysts say the split could mark the beginning of the end for the cartel.
Some analysts argued OPEC doesn’t matter, and Russia is the big winner, since they have added more to exports in the past few years than Saudi Arabia, and have the ability to boost their production further.
Is Increasing the Gas Tax the Answer?
The head of General Motors’ North American unit predicted gasoline prices will continue to climb in coming years. While, General Motors’ CEO, Dan Akerson, called for higher gas taxes to push people to buy more efficient cars. “We ought to just slap a 50-cent or a dollar tax on a gallon of gas,” Akerson said.
Meanwhile, the Liveable Communities Taskforce in the U.S. House of Representatives issued a report titled “Freedom From Oil.” “Providing a range of transportation choices can help break auto dependence,” the report said, and it encouraged a range of measures from more efficient cars, to better city planning, to “pay-as-you-drive” auto insurance.
Clean Energy Trade Wars
Subsidies for clean energy and emissions trading schemes were also a source of discord, within countries and internationally. China agreed to end subsidies that favored wind power firms using domestic parts, after the U.S. complained it was protectionism that broke World Trade Organization rules.
Starting next year, the European Union plans to include flights in and out of Europe in its greenhouse gas emissions trading system. But China may threaten a trade war over this issue, following on U.S. carriers, who have already started a legal battle to fight European Union levies on flights.
In several countries, feed-in tariffs that subsidize renewable energy are on the chopping block. The United Kingdom is considering slashing its subsidy by 40 to 70 percent for installations producing more than 50 kilowatts, but the solar industry pleaded for a re-think, saying the move would “decapitate” the industry. The chief policy director of the Confederation of British Industry said “business confidence has clearly been bruised by sudden and unexpected policy shifts,” including the reversal of these tariffs.
Climate Talks Stumble, Coal Rises
A few countries are starting to oppose an extension of the Kyoto Protocol. The climate treaty expires in 2012, and countries have been trying to negotiate a successor, but with limited success. At the latest round of talks in Bonn, Germany, one of Canada’s delegates said their country would not take on any emissions targets under an extension of the treaty. Russia and Japan also took a similar stance. The European Union’s lead negotiator said it may take until 2014 or 2015 to create a full successor treaty.
To help cut emissions and cope with a decline of nuclear power, the world could create a “golden age of gas,” according to a new IEA report. However, renewable energy such as wind and solar is often competing with natural gas—so the rise of natural gas could “muscle out” renewables, delaying their deployment.
Only six months ago, the IEA was warning about a gas glut, but that is already beginning to dissipate as gas demand has surged. In part this is due to increased imports by Japan of liquefied natural gas, after shutting another of its nuclear power plants.
The world may be moving increasingly toward coal, according to numbers published in the latest BP Statistical Review. Coal consumption rose to 29.6 percent of the world’s energy—its highest share of the energy mix since 1970—with China’s use growing 10 percent in 2010, but richer countries also consuming 5 percent more in 2010. To reflect the rise of renewables, BP added them to their report for the first time, reporting that in 2010, solar grew 73 percent and wind close to 25 percent.
A New Kind of Crude
Instead of relying one kind of black goop—crude oil—to power cars, researchers at MIT developed another liquid they call “Cambridge crude.” The conductive liquid can store electrical charge, so that the battery could be slowly charged by plugging it in, or could be quickly “refueled” by draining the liquid and pumping in a new, pre-charged batch—giving electric cars the flexibility of fuel cars.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
