The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
A leaked draft of a report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that global warming is already affecting all continents and that additional pollution from heat-trapping gases will worsen the situation.
“Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems,” the report stated.
The document is the final piece of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, which synthesizes earlier reports on climate change. The report will not be released until its review at a conference in Copenhagen later this fall.
President Obama doesn’t appear interested in waiting to take action against climate change. Media are reporting that he is planning to use his executive powers—sidestepping the two-thirds Senate vote required for a legally binding treaty—to forge another sort of international deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The “politically binding” deal, which The New York Times reports will be signed at the United Nations Summit Meeting in Paris next year, is intended to “name and shame” countries into cutting emissions. Negotiators are working to implement the deal, which would commit every signatory nation to achieving specific carbon reduction goals and to sending money to poorer nations to address the effects of climate. These “fresh voluntary pledges” would be mixed with legally binding 1992 treaty conditions.
But a State Department official said it was premature to say for certain that Obama will bypass Congress.
“Not a word of the new climate agreement currently under discussion has been written, so it is entirely premature to say whether it will or won’t require Senate approval,” said Jen Psaki, State Department spokeswoman. “Our goal is to negotiate a successful and effective global climate agreement that can help address this pressing challenge. Anything that is eventually negotiated and that should go to the Senate will go to the Senate.”
Methane “Seeps” Could Effect Ocean Temperatures
Methane, a gas about 20 times more powerful than carbon dioxide, is leaking from deep-sea vents off the East Coast where the Continental Shelf meets the deeper Atlantic Ocean. The newly released Nature study found more than 550 of these “seeps,” which are thought to be fed by methane stored in hydrates—described by Science as crystal lattices of water ice that form under low temperatures and high pressures.
Until now, previous surveys had found only three such seeps.
“It is the first time we’ve seen this level of seepage outside the Arctic that is not associated with features like oil and gas reservoirs or active tectonic margins,” said Adam Skarke, lead author of the study. “This is a large amount of methane seepage in an area we didn’t expect.”
The seeps were discovered, according to the study, at depths that are typically more stable for gas hydrate. Although the methane likely didn’t reach the atmosphere, it could affect ocean acidity.
“Warming of the ocean waters could cause this ice to melt and release gas,” said Skarke. “So there may be some connection here to intermediate ocean warming, though we need to carry out further investigations to confirm if that is the case.”
EPA Report Says Cities Getting Cleaner
The second of two reports required under the Clean Air Act to inform Congress of progress in reducing urban air toxins is out. It finds that since enactment of the Clean Air Act amendments of 1990 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has made significant progress in reducing these toxins:
- Coal-fired power plants and other manmade sources have decreased toxic mercury emissions by about 60 percent.
- Cancer-causing benzene has been reduced by 66 percent.
- Lead in outdoor air is down 84 percent.
- An estimated 1.5 million tons per year of air toxics has been removed from mobile sources, which represents a 50 percent reduction in mobile-source air toxics emissions.
“But we know our work is not done yet,” said EPA administrator Gina McCarthy. “At the core of EPA’s mission is environmental justice—striving for clean air, water and healthy land for every American; and we are committed to reducing remaining pollution, especially in low-income neighborhoods.”
The report cited six areas in which the EPA’s air toxics program could improve, including research on the health impacts of air toxics and collection of data in more areas covering more ambient pollutants.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
Editor’s Note: While Tim Profeta is on vacation, Jeremy Tarr, policy associate in the Climate and Energy Program at Duke’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, will author The Climate Post. Tim will post again August 28.
A unanimous ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit could change the way utilities and regulators consider electricity transmission and open pathways for new renewable energy facilities.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) Order 1000 rule, issued in 2011, requires participation by public utility transmission providers in regional planning processes, establishes methods to clarify who will pay for new transmission projects, and includes procedures to consider the effects of energy-related policies on the grid. In the lawsuit petitioners challenged FERC’s authority to adopt these reforms and whether they are supported by sufficient evidence
In its decision, a three-judge panel upheld Order 1000 and explained that “The Commission reasonably determined that regional planning must include consideration of transmission needs driven by public policy requirements.” The decision noted that “The Commission expects that many states will require construction of new transmission infrastructure to integrate sources of renewable energy, such as wind farms, into the grid and that new federal environmental regulations will shape utilities’ decisions about when to retire old coal-based generators. Plans that fail to account for such laws and regulations, the Commissioned reasoned, would not adequately reflect future needs.”
Some experts viewed the ruling as “progress”; others felt the decision sets the stage for future appeals.
Report Analyzes Wind Power Trends
A new report by the U.S. Department of Energy and the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory highlights trends in the wind industry during 2013. It found that the wind industry remains strong in the United States, which ranked second only to China in installed wind power. The United States, however, represented only 3 percent of global wind additions in 2013.
Other key findings from the report:
- Wind power purchase agreement prices reached all-time lows in the United States in 2013 thanks to 20–40 percent lower wind turbine prices (compared to 2008) and lower installed project costs, which are down more than $600/kW from 2009 and 2010 levels. The average price stream of wind power purchase agreements executed last year ($25 per megawatt hour) compares favorably with a range of projections of the fuel costs of gas-fired generation extending into 2040.
- New wind installations are expected to increase in 2014 and 2015. Projections for 2016 and beyond are less certain.
- A growing percentage of equipment used in U.S. wind projects is sourced domestically.
Arctic Drilling Subject of Interagency Review
No current regulations specifically govern Arctic oil development, but a draft proposal on drilling safety rules by the U.S. Department of Interior made its way to the White House’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review Friday.
Details of the proposal remain undisclosed. According to the OMB website, the rules are designed to “promote safe, responsible, and effective drilling activities … while also ensuring the protection of Alaska’s coastal communities and marine environment.”
Some speculate the rules—which may be under review for months—could require oil companies to obtain leak containment equipment before beginning drilling activities. Federal rules may not be in place before Shell resumes a three-year break from drilling in the region.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
The Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University
Editor’s Note: While Tim Profeta is on vacation, Jeremy Tarr, policy associate in the Climate and Energy Program at Duke’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, will author The Climate Post. Tim will post again August 28.
A new economic study in the journal Nature Climate Change finds that the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, which would run from Canada to Nebraska, linking existing pipelines to carry oil to refineries in the Gulf of Mexico, could produce four times more greenhouse gases than the U.S. State Department calculated in January. In its final environmental review, the State Department predicted the pipeline would create between 1 million and 27 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually—compared with 100 to 110 million metric tons yearly according to the Nature Climate Change study. The State Department’s estimate did not take into account that oil from the pipeline is likely to decrease prices and increase consumption.
“There is no indication that the State Department took the market implication into consideration,” said lead author Peter Erickson of the Stockholm Environment Institute.
“Our simple model shows that, to the extent that Keystone XL leads to greater oil sands production, the pipeline’s effect on oil prices could substantially increase its total GHG impact,” said the study, which noted that for every barrel of increased crude oil production in the Canadian tar sands, global oil consumption could rise by 0.6 barrels.
The analysis supports earlier warnings by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that the State Department study failed to account for the market increase.
Studies Paint Grim Climate Change Picture
A 26-page draft United Nations report finds that cuts in greenhouse gas emissions of 40 to 70 percent from 2010 levels would be needed by 2050 to avoid the worst effects of global warming.
“Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to limit warming to 2 degrees C … remain possible, yet will entail substantial technological, economic, institutional, and behavioral changes,” said the draft report, which sums up the three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports published over the last year. The report is intended to serve as a guide for the nearly 200 governments slated to hash out a deal to combat climate change at U.N. Conference of the Parties (COP) talks in Paris in 2015.
Even if negotiators reach a deal in Paris, it may not be enough to limit temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. That’s according to a new study from MIT.
“Based on our expectations for the architecture of a COP-21 agreement, and our predictions about the national contributions likely to come forth under it, our analysis concludes that these international efforts will indeed bend the curve of global emissions. However, our results also show that these efforts will not put the globe on a path consistent with commonly stated long-term climate goals,” the study says.
Regulating Emissions from Power Plants Stirs Debate
A dozen states have filed a lawsuit in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals challenging the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Clean Power Plan. Proposed in June, the plan would control carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act.
Led by West Virginia, a major coal producer, the lawsuit accuses the EPA of overstepping its authority under the Clean Air Act. The plaintiffs—which also include Alabama, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, South Carolina and Wyoming—assert that a 2011 agreement with environmental groups and states, as well as subsequent regulations, are illegal because power plants are regulated under a different part of the Clean Air Act.
“We will use many different tactics to fight this rule,” said Wyoming Gov. Matt Mead. “It is an overreach and is harmful to the economy of the entire country and in particular to Wyoming. We need affordable energy and a clean environment. We can have both, but this is not how we get there. This rule goes too far.”
Legal experts interviewed by ClimateWire say this lawsuit and others is unlikely to touch the rule, at least in the near term (subscription).
Our researchers at Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions explain the EPA’s Clean Power Plan in detail in a recent webinar. The presentation describes the four “building blocks” used by the EPA to determine each state’s unique emissions goal and provides an example calculation of state emissions goals.
China to Ban Coal Use in Polluted Capital
Coal use made up a quarter of Beijing’s energy consumption in 2012 and 22 percent of the fine particles of pollution in the air. Beijing’s Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau announced a plan this week to ban the use of coal in certain areas by 2020.
The city will prioritize the use of electricity and natural gas, rather than coal, for heating and phase out coal sales and plants in the districts of Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chaoyang, Haidian, Fengtai and Shijingshan.
Quartz isn’t convinced that Beijing’s move away from coal generation is for the best. Because China does not have enough natural gas to meet its energy needs, it may rely on synthetic natural gas, which is natural gas developed from coal. Although this form of energy creates a fraction of the traditional pollutants emitted by coal-fired power plants, Quartz estimates that it releases up to 82 percent more carbon dioxide than coal-fired generation and requires huge amounts of water.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
